Monday, October 16, 2017

New Zealand September 2017

Resultado de imagem para tesla model s in new zealand


Record Month 

A record 90 plug-ins were sold last month, doubling the result achieved in the same perriod last year, with the EV Share now at a record 0.6%.

Looking at the models ranking, the leadership is in the hand of the usual Best Seller, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with 193 units, only four units behind the all-time yearly record that the Japanese SUV did in 2014. Will the Outlander PHEV reach more than 250 units by year end?

Three all electric models follow the Japanese model, with the Hyundai Ioniq Electric surpassing the Tesla Model S and earning the Silver Medal place, with 98 units, 19 of them last month, a new personal best for the Korean. Kudos to the local importer for getting enough units that allow it to shine here.

Looking below, we see a good start from the Mini Countryman PHEV, now in Seventh, and the VW e-Golf delivering six units in one month, a new personal best, no doubt helped by the new, longer range version. 

In the Manufacturers ranking, the six times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi is in the lead, with 30% share, but with Tesla not that far off (28% share), it will be an entretaining race to follow. 

In the race for Third Place, Hyundai (15%) is running ahead of BMW (11%), with the German carmaker having lost a few points share in the last couple of months.

PlNew ZealandSep.YTD '17%'16Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV24193301
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
9
10
10
10
13
14
15
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Tesla Model S
Tesla Model X
BMW i3
Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Mini Countryman PHEV
BMW X5 PHEV
Mercedes GLE500e
Mercedes C350e
Volvo XC90 PHEV
Volkswagen e-Golf
BMW 330e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-in
19
11
8
4
11

3




6
1

98
96
83
45
33
10
10
9
8
8
8
7
6
5
15
15
13
7
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
13
6
N/A
2
4
7
N/A
N/A
N/A
9
5
N/A
15
9
16
17
18
18
18

Audi Q7 e-Tron
BMW i8
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Mercedes E350e
Renault Zoe 
Others



1
1
1
4
3
2
2
2
6
1
0
0
0
0
1
N/A 
8
N/A
N/A
14

TOTAL90639100

Source: mia.org.nz


Plug-ins and regular hybrids

Pl
Model
Sep.
Sales  
1
 Toyota Camry Hybrid
50
2
  Toyota Corolla Hybrid
39
3
Mit. Outlander PHEV
24
4
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
19
5
Toyota Prius C
17


Comparing plug-ins with regular hybrids, we can see the results of a growing PEV market share, if in the past only the Outlander PHEV could compete with HEVs, and even then it was an occasional presence in the Top 5, now there are two plug-ins in the Top 5, with the Hyundai Ioniq BEV joining the Outlander PHEV.

An interesting stat, is that while the BEV version of the Ioniq registered 19 units last month, the HEV only did four. I think this says something on what people really want.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Canada August 2017 & September Preview

Image result for Tesla Canada

Tesla Month

The big news were of course both Teslas surpassing the Nissan Leaf, with the Model S now in the last place of the podium, while the Nissan Leaf stumbled to #5, having registered only 50 units, its worst result in 30 months. t seems the local importer is now in Leaf II waiting mode.

But other important changes occurred in the Top 10, with the Prius Prime joining the club in #9, thanks to 91 units, while the irregular Chrysler Pacifica PHEV joined the Volvo XC90 PHEV in #10.

Looking into September preliminary results, we have the leader Chevrolet Volt returning to form, with an all-time record of 483 units, followed by its younger Bolt relative, clocking 227 registrations, its best result since March, all while the Prius Prime maintained its pace (88 units), the Leaf confirmed to be in “waiting mode”, with only 19 deliveries, and the recently arrived VW e-Golf registered a surprising 122 units, an impressive feat that could mean the German hatch has major ambitions in this market.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Chevrolet (24%) is stable at the Throne, keeping Tesla (18%) at just enough distance.

In Third Place we have Nissan, with 9% share, doing its best to save its Bronze Medal from Ford (7%) and BMW (6%).

  
Pl
Canada
August
YTD
%
1
Chevrolet Volt
295
2524
24
2
Chevrolet Bolt EV
82
1065
10
3
Tesla Model S  
105
946
9
4
Tesla Model X
95
923
9
5
Nissan Leaf
50
909
9
6
Audi A3 e-Tron
27
393
4
6
Kia Soul EV  
52
393
4
8
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
73
384
4
9
Toyota Prius Prime
91
333
3
10
Volvo XC90 PHEV
44
332
3
10
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV
65
332
3
12
Ford Focus Electric
67
326
3
13
Ford C-Max Energi   e)
30
240
2
14
Porsche Cayenne PHEV
14
219
2
15
Ford Fusion Energi   e)
25
200
2
16
BMW  i3
18
188
2
17
BMW X5 PHEV
10
174
2
18
Volkswagen e-Golf
40
163
2
19
BMW i8
7
71
1
20
BMW 330e
11
70
1
Others
34
215

TOTAL
1.238
10.406


Source: Green Car Reports 


Tesla Model S & Others

Pl
Model
Aug.
Sales  
1
 Mercedes E/CLS-Class
360
2
              BMW 5-Series
269
3
Tesla Model S
105
4
Porsche Panamera
67
5
Volvo S90
66

Looking at the full-size vehicles general ranking, the top two continue in their usual positions, with the Model S collecting another Bronze Medal, but below it, the remaining competition is well behind, with new faces showing up in the Top 5: The Porsche Panamera was Fourth and the Volvo S90, Fifth.

If all is (good) business as usual in Model S territory, the Model X on the other hand, is having a much harder time, failing once again to make an impression, this time it has even fallen out of its class Top 10, recording only 95 deliveries in a fast growing segment. 


Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Norway September 2017 (Updated)

Image result for 2017 vw e-golf in norway
"Ampera who?!? I eat two of these for breakfast..."

48% Share!

The Norwegian plug-in market reached 48% share last month, a new all-time high, thanks to a record 6.524 registrations, up 43% YoY, leading to an increase in the YTD tally to some 43.000 registrations, up 29% YoY, pulling the 2017 plug-in share to new heights, now at 37%. Will it reach 40% by year end?

Interestingly, BEVs (+33%) are growing faster than PHEVs (+24%), a trend that probably will be more significant in 2018, once the new Leaf arrives, along with the Tesla Model 3 and the remaining next generation of dedicated BEVs.

Looking at September Top Sellers, this sales surge was concentrated in three models, with both Teslas and the VW e-Golf surpassing the 900 units mark. Of these three models, the most surprising performance was from the Model S, that with 1.007 deliveries, had its best result in 30 months (1.140 units in March '15), in fact, last month Tesla delivered as much Model S as in the previous eight months...


I guess a lot of Norwegians decided to wait for the Model 3 unveil and after that, decided to go for the Model S. (Given the chance, i would go for the Model S too, it's just a better car, especially on the inside, for some reason the Model 3 interior reminds me the Johnny Cab).

An amusing factoid on the BMW i3 registrations, last month a Rex unit was registered, the first of the year.

PlModelSales  
1Tesla Model S1.007
2Tesla Model X996
3
Volkswagen e-Golf
949
4BMW i3
313
5Mitsu. Outlander PHEV292

Looking at the YTD ranking, the most important news were the rise of both Tesla nameplates, with the Model X climbing to #5 and the Model S jumping to #8, while in the second half of the ranking, two Volvos finally started to pump out in decent numbers, with the S/V90 PHEV twins and the XC60 PHEV delivering over 200 units each and going to #23 and #24, respectively.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (22%, down 1%) is in the leadership, with BMW (17%) in Second, while Tesla (11%, up 3%) surpassed Mercedes (10% share, down 2%) in the race for the Third Spot.

Footnote: Five additional Hyundai FCEVs and one Mirai were added in September, with the Hyundai SUV leading the 2017 race by 20 to 12...Despite being an older model. Sharewise, FCEVs have 0,03% share of the market.

PlNorwaySep.YTD%'16Pl
1Volkswagen e-Golf9494.531112
2BMW i33133.74895
3Nissan Leaf1112.91174
4
5
6
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Tesla Model X
Volkswagen Passat GTE
292
996
211
2.739
2.694
2.652
6
6
6
1
11
6
7
8
Mercedes GLC350e
Tesla Model S
156
1.007
2.177
2.023
5
5
21
8
9Volkswagen Golf GTE2291.88543
10
11
Renault Zoe
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
38
194
1.880
1.525
4
4
10
12
12Mercedes B250e841.41639
13
14
15
16
17
Volvo XC90 T8
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Audi A3 e-Tron
Mercedes C350e
Opel Ampera-e
169
76
153
158
28
1.301
1.290
1.224
944
923
3
3
3
2
2
19
20
7
15
N/A
18
19
Audi Q7 e-Tron
BMW X5 40e
84
48
787
752
2
2
22
16
20Volvo V60 Plug-In15618117
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Volkswagen e-Up!
Kia Soul EV
Volvo S/V90 PHEV
Volvo XC60 PHEV
BMW 530e
Toyota Prius PHV
Kia Optima PHEV
BMW 330e
Mini Countryman PHEV
Mercedes E350e
Others
83
58
246
215
59
40
67
17
90
34
314
582
545
400
362
336
334
281
275
260
204
1.376
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
3
14
13
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
39
24
N/A
N/A


TOTAL6.52442.976100


Source: elbil.no; ofvas.no


Models breakdown by Fuel Source

PlModelSales  
1Tesla Model S1.007
2Tesla Model X996
3Volkswagen e-Golf949
4Toyota Yaris347
5
6
7
8
9
10
BMW i3
Toyota RAV4
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
Toyota Auris
Volvo S/V90 PHEV
Toyota C-HR
312
299
292
263
246
237


With 48% PEV share in September, the general market is showing the electrification effort, for the first time ever, there are no ICE models in the Top 10, with four HEVs, two PHEVs and four BEVs.

This month we have three BEV models on the podium, with both Teslas and the VW e-Golf high above everyone else, with 600 units more than the Fourth Placed Toyota Yaris, with another BEV, the BMW i3,  closing the Top 5.

Two plug-in hybrids (Outlander PHEV and S/V90 PHEV) and three additional Toyota hybrids (RAV4 and C-HR) follow.

Having reached a "NO ICE" Top 10, the next step will be to replace HEVs for plug-ins. This year should be difficult to achieve it, maybe in 2018?


And now an interesting contribution from our reader Terje:


Norway entering early majority and now we start to see the consequences



In order to drive the adoption through the early majority phase, the government must be backed by the decision-makers in each city. At this stage the local politics in each city really matters.

So by looking at this site:


(Some of the rates are really odd, but the core numbers can be utilized to find adoption rate per region)
 
You will see that there are two cities in Norway that are leading the race:

Oslo: Capital of Oslo and Akershus regions

Bergen. Capital of  Hordaland region

 This article shows how Oslo is now taking the lead in EV adoption:

 
The keys are

* At early majority home chargers for those that do NOT have their own garage become critical;

* At early majoriy, polution fees for ICE cars become acceptable and are used to meet EU pollution regulations;

And indications are that this is now driving EV rate in September for Oslo and Bergen, and expectation is that this will further increase when winter season with it's higher air pollution issues arrive in October.

This is based on log's for the tollroads around the 4 largest cities in Norway. And you can see exactly how the BEV share has increased.

The differences are based on different factors

* Oslo and Bergen have the highest payment in the toll-ring

* Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger are in fjord areas with ferries. In these cases EV ferry discount increases the incentive

* Bergen is surrounded by mountains (It's called the citiy between the seven mountains). These trap the pollution during winter time. Due to this, there are restriction one ICE cars on some winter-days in Bergen

* There are different EV parking rules between the cities.
When this number cross 20% BEV will need to start paying road-toll.

The reduction in Trondheim the last year is due to BEV needed to start paying for city parking as downtown became flooded by long-term parking BEVs..
And the main conclusions are: As Norway now enters early majority, the EV incentives at city level becomes more and more important, as incentives must be removed because of the large numers of BEVs and new ICE fees and taxes can be added because the Green alternative has become so obvious, and access to shared chargers is critical for EV owners that do not own their own garage.

And this wave will hit Europe in 3-7 yrs...