Monday, November 20, 2017

Portugal October 2017

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal


BMW 530e, #1 in October, Renault Zoe #1 YTD

PEV Sales continue on the rise in Portugal, with sales hitting a new record in October, with 437 registrations (Up 175%), and sales in 2017 up 109% YoY to 3.095 units, with the PEV share at a record 1.7%, there's good reasons to be optimistic and see maybe registrations reach 4.000 units this year.

After years of underwelming performances, the Renault Zoe is living up to expectations, leading the market with 574 registrations, but this month the best seller was the BMW 530e, with 77 deliveries, a company-car friendly model, as companies have VAT-exemption when buying plug-ins up to a certain price.

With a new Leaf landing in a few months, it will be interesting to see if the Japanese hatchback regains the #1 spot.

A popular brand is BMW, with three models in the Top 5, with the 530e jumping to Fifth Place and on its way to add the best selling PHEV title to the Rookie Of The Year award. 

This is one of the few markets where the Mercedes C350e still outsells its GLC350e SUV-relative, but with the GLC climbing to #6, becoming the new best selling SUV, and only 11 units behind the C-Class, the Mercedes AWD model might still end the year as the best selling three-pointed-star model.

Further down the ranking, the Smart brand BEVs had a great official landing, jumping into the Top 30, with the new Fortwo ED scoring more in a month (22) than in its predecessor in its best year (21 units, in 2013). A promising start, let's hope it is followed by further positive performances.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW is an increasingly stronger leader, with 30% share (Up 1%), followed by Renault (18%, down 1%) and Mercedes (14%, down 2%).

Pl
Portugal
Oct.
2017
%
Pl '16
1
2
Renault Zoe
Nissan Leaf
50
11
574
279
18
9
6
1
3BMW 330e 162498
7
4BMW i3
37
226
8
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13
14
14
16
17
18
19
20
20
22
22
24
24
26
27
28
BMW 530e
Mercedes C350e
Mercedes GLC350e
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Mercedes E350e
Toyota Prius PHEV
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Mini Countryman PHEV
Volkswagen e-Golf
BMW X5 40e
Smart Fortwo ED
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Tesla Model S   e)
Tesla Model X   e)
Smart Forfour ED
BMW 740e
Volvo XC90 PHEV
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Kia Niro PHEV
Porsche Panamera PHEV
77
18
29
23
20
8
11
5
9
3
15
18
7
11
22
2
2
2
16

4
3
8
1
223
197
186
185
152
107
84
78
61
54
54
52
41
35
25
24
24
18
18
17
17
15
14
13
7
6
6
6
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
N/A
2
22
3
13
10
5
N/A
27
11
8
N/A
18
10
31
N/A
15
26
N/A
23
28
31
N/A
N/A
29
30

Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW i8
Others

2
7
12
11
50
0
0
2
28
21


TOTAL4372.748100

Source: ACAP


Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids


Pl
Model
Sep. Sales  
1
Toyota Auris Hybrid
120
2
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
103
3
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
84
4
BMW 530e
77
5
Renault Zoe
50



As plug-ins reach new heights, it starts to be interesting to compare them with regular hybrids, a class completely owned by Toyota, which has also grown significantly, as people leave their diesel-addiction for electrified models.

Nevertheless, the Third Place seems attainable, so in the near future the Toyota domination is likely to be dented, bit by bit. 

The Fourth Place of the BMW 530e is a surprise, but it is also another sign that companies are leaving their diesel addiction and going electric.




EV Distribution - Portugal October 2017

Almost two years have passed since the last survey regarding the distribution of EV's in my home country, based on used car websites and other sources, i have updated it, remembre, this should only be seen as an indication of how electric vehicles are distributed across the portuguese territory.

For the information to be easier to understand for people not familiar with the local geography, i have divided the country in seven areas: Northwest (Porto, Aveiro, Braga and Viana do Castelo  districts), Northeast (Bragança, Vila Real, Guarda and Viseu), Center (Coimbra, Castelo Branco, Leiria and Santarém), Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Lisbon and Setubal), South (Portalegre, Evora, Beja and Faro), Azores and Madeira Islands.


 Let's look at the distribution of the sample EV's:


Northwest

Following Lisbon Metro area, this is the second area with most PEV's (33%), the BMW i3 has surpassed the Nissan Leaf as the most popular EV, with a little help from imports, while the Volvo V60 Plug-In continues to be a local success story, being Third in the survey, with more than half of units in Portugal being located here.











Northeast

Known for having the harshest conditions in mainland Portugal, with several 1000mts-plus mountains in the area, cold winters, including sub-sero temperatures and the seasonal snow, while in the summer near-40ºC temperatures are the norm, it would be expected that PHEV's and especially the Outlander PHEV would be popular here. That's not the case, in a small market (4% of total), the most common EV is the Nissan Leaf, with 3 units, followed by the BMW i3 and the Renault Twizy(!). It must be interesting to drive the Twizy in freezing temperatures...








Center


In the transitional North-South area, responsible for 18% of the total stock, the Nissan Leaf is the most popular choice, with PHEV imports being quite popular, as the second most common plug-in in this area is the Opel Ampera, a nameplate that barely was sold in Portugal when new, while the BMW i3 is Third, with a strong prevalence of the Rex version.




 
 
 

 
Lisbon Metropolitan Area


Lisbon is not only the nation's capital, but also the only place where you stumble on EV's everywhere, with 35% of the total plug-in fleet. The most common EV is the Nissan Leaf, followed by the Renault Zoe, a car that has been selling substancially here, and BMW i3. Lisbon also has the most heterogeneous offer, with seemingly every model on sale in Portugal.











South


In this area, most of EV's are concentrated in the tourist-friendly Algarve, with the BMW i3 becoming the most popular choice, while the Outlander PHEV is the second most common plug-in.

The Nissan Leaf, the most common EV in Portugal, here is only Third, possibly due to customers being wary of the Leaf battery-degradation reputation in hot climates.


Azores Islands

Plug-ins are still in their infancy here, with only 2% of the country's PEV stock, with the complete lack of public infrastructure not helping at all, which is a shame, as the mild climate and short distances are good conditions for plug-ins. Anyway, the most common EV here are the BMW i3 and Renault Twizy, both with 2 units.


Madeira Islands

The Madeira EV scene is much more developed than in the Azores, with public infrastructure, including fast-charging and serious investment from local importers, especially Renault. The most common EV here is the Renault Zoe, followed by the Twizy. with the Nissan Leaf being the Third most common EV here.


Conclusions

That the Nissan Leaf is a success story across mainland Portugal, we already knew, but recent sucess story of the Renault Zoe is something new, especially in the Lisbon metro area and in Madeira, while the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is still the most common plug-in hybrid, strangely more popular in the southern areas than in the north, where ice and snow can be a problem. Then again, most people buy SUV's because they "want" one, not because they "need" it...

Teslas are starting to be scattered across the country, but the reality is that EV's are still concentrated around Lisbon and in the NW (Braga-Porto-Aveiro) industrial belt.



Friday, November 17, 2017

China October 2017

Image result for BAIC EC180 price


BAIC EC-Series scores 11.000 units in October


The rise and rise of the Chinese PEV market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in October, with 66.000 new passenger PEVs being registered last month, almost doubling the result of October ‘16, while pulling the YTD count to over 405.000 units, up 55% YoY.

As consequence of this, the 2017 PEV market share has crossed for the first time the 2% share, firmly ahead of last year score (1.5%). As sales are expected to grow even further until the end of the year, the Chinese PEV market might even reach the 2.5% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 6% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, with the remaining 1% being divided by all other auto makers.

In October, both small city cars and compact SUV’s placed two representatives in the Top 5, with the EC-Series beating the world record for registrations in a single month, with 11.315 units, while the new 100 kms range version has given the BYD Qin PHEV a second youth, delivering 4.102 units, a new record for the nameplate.


Here’s October Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 Image result for BAIC EC
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: I would say the 11.315 EC-Series registered in October were an historical landmark, after all it was the first time that a single model crossed into the five-digit sales, but with ever improving performances since the 2.563 units of last June, it looks that numbers will continue to go upwards until December. The little city EV is doing a revolution in China, owing its success to a trendy design, reminding that of a Crossover, improved specs (Now with 200 kms range) and competitive pricing (19.000€), all in a booming market segment. With the Chinese edition of the 2017 Best Selling PEV title already in their hands, BAIC is now looking to win the global edition of the same award, and to that end, last month it has surpassed the Big Boys (Leaf, Prius Prime and Model S), thus becoming the first Chinese model to reach #1 on the global market.

Image result for zhidou d2
#2 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that continues to be delivered in large quantities (4.502 units in October), probably due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max. speed, all this for some 16.000€. The brand has ambitious plans to market it as a car-sharing vehicle in Europe, will local consumers want to drive it?

Image result for 2018 byd qin dm
#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 kms), BYD’s sports sedan (0-100 kms/h in 5.9s) recovered its mojo and had a record 4.102 registrations in October. With a competitive price (31.000$ before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them, in order to satisfy demand.

Image result for white BYD Song PHEV
#4 – BYD Song PHEV: If the Qin is the “Model 3” of BYD, the Song is the “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version, last month it registered 3.064 units, dropping some 700 units regarding the previous month. Is the Qin renewed success hurting the Song demand or is it just a case of production constraints? I believe the full potential of BYD’s compact SUV could be around 5.000 units/month.

Image result for jac iev6s specs
#5 – JAC iEV6S: One of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, JAC is trying to regain relevance with its iEV6S, a compact Crossover (Think Kia Soul) that registered 2.861 units in October, allowing it to reach a Top 5 position last month. A vehicle targeted to hip urbanites, for a competitive 26.000$ before incentives, you get a trendy city model, with a 33kWh battery providing decent range (251 kms NEDC), and the engine has enough power (114 hp), to give it the “go” needed for their customers supposedly active life.


Image result for SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
Roewe eRX5 is making itself noticed

 
Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series orders the 2017 title

In a stable market, the big news is the EC-Series (almost) definitely securing this year Best Seller title, a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that BYD loses the Best Selling Models award. At the time, the best seller was the Chery QQ3 EV, with 5.727 units. With two months to go, the EC-Series is now at 49.000…

To see some changes in the ranking, we have to go Fifth Place, where the JAC iEV6S climbed one position, while the BYD Qin PHEV jumped four positions to #10, surpassing among others, the stablemate BYD Tang, which dropped two positions to #12, a surprisingly low position for the 2016 Best Selling model.

On the rise is also the Roewe eRX5 BEV, jumping to #15, thanks to a record 2.811 deliveries, with other models also hitting personal records, besides the aforementioned BAIC EC-Series, BYD Qin PHEV and Roewe eRX5 BEV, three recent additions scored relevant results: The Changan Eulove EV scored 1.201 units, Hawtai registered 2.112 EV160’s and the much awaited Wuling E100 is at 1.724 units in its only third full month on the market. No production hell here…

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%, up 1%) is comfortable at the Throne, keeping the runner-up BAIC (16%, up 1%) at a safe distance. At least for now.

In Third Place we (still) have Zhidou, with 9% share, with Roewe (9%, up 1%) closing in, with the Shanghai-based manufacturer trying to reach the podium, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.


Pl
China
Oct.
YTD
%
1
BAIC EC-Series
11315
49191
12
2
Zhidou D2 EV
4502
37093
9
3
BYD Song PHEV
3064
22910
6
4
BYD e5
2386
20649
5
5
JAC iEV6S
2861
18585
5
6
Geely Emgrand EV
1742
17990
4
7
Chery eQ  
1996
16762
4
8
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1593
15042
4
9
Changan Benni EV 
632
12375
3
10
BYD Qin PHEV
4102
11937
3
11
Zotye E200
2349
11612
3
12
BYD Tang
868
11329
3
13
JMC E100
246
10663
3
14
BAIC EU-Series
412
8656
2
15
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV
2811
7638
2
16
JMC E200
1799
7386
2
17
Tesla Model S   e)
350
6498
2
18
Tesla Model X   e)
500
6481
2
19
Zotye Cloud EV
276
5840
1
20
Kandi K12 EV
1638
5664
1
Others
21001
100831

TOTAL
66443
405132